NERC's reliability report flags rising generator forced outage rates

NERC published its 2026 State of Reliability report this week. The grid performed well in 2025, but two findings stand out for owners and operators: conventional forced outage rates climbed to 9.2%, above the historical norm, and inverter-based resources (IBRs) continue to drop output unexpectedly during routine grid disturbances.

Closer in: CIP-012-2 goes live in six days, on July 1, adding availability and communications-recovery requirements to the confidentiality-and-integrity protections already in place for inter-Control Center data.

Industry Update

NERC 2026 State of Reliability: Conventional Forced Outage Rates Hit 9.2%, IBR Output Losses Persist

NERC published its 2026 State of Reliability report on June 24, reviewing 2025 grid performance. The bulk power system stayed highly reliable and resilient, with frequency response and misoperation rates stable or improving. Two findings that matter for Generator Owners and Generator Operators (GOs and GOPs): rising forced outage rates and persistent IBR output losses.

Conventional generator forced outage rates climbed to a 9.2% weighted equivalent rate in 2025, above the 7-8% historical norm. Coal units lost 39.8 TWh more energy to forced outages than in 2024, and combined-cycle units another 19.1 TWh, with NERC naming the aging coal fleet as the larger concern. Higher outage rates compress reserves just as data-center and AI-compute load growth accelerates across every region NERC tracks.

IBRs continue to reduce or cease output unexpectedly during routine disturbances, then recover within minutes. NERC counted four such events above 500 MW in 2024 and 16 since 2020, driven by ride-through limitations, controls, protection systems, and modeling gaps. The 2025 data shows improvement, but a new failure mode surfaced: a 1,132 MW loss when sub-synchronous oscillation protection tripped generation offline, not previously seen at that scale. For the 531 facilities registered as Category 2 GOs and GOPs, whose compliance obligations began May 15, 2026, this is the backdrop to the ride-through rules now arriving: PRC-029-1 and PRC-030-1 take effect October 1, 2026, with design compliance for non-BES IBRs due January 1, 2027.

On the positive side, battery energy storage (BESS) now arrests frequency decline faster than conventional generation in dense-BESS regions. NERC flags the limit: with only a few hours of capacity, BESS is not a complete answer to long-duration events like major winter storms.

Compliance Resources

CIP-012-2 Takes Effect July 1: Six Days to Close the Gap

CIP-012-2 replaces CIP-012-1 in six days, on July 1, 2026. It applies to Responsible Entities that own or operate a Control Center, including Generator Owners and Generator Operators with Control Center operations.

CIP-012-1 required a documented plan to protect the confidentiality and integrity of Real-time Assessment and Real-time monitoring data exchanged between Control Centers. CIP-012-2 extends that to three properties: confidentiality, integrity, and availability (R1.2), and adds a requirement to document plans to initiate recovery of any lost communication link (R1.3).

Before July 1, verify three things: your existing plan explicitly covers availability, not just confidentiality and integrity; any inter-Control Center link that cannot technically meet all three properties has documented compensating controls; and your evidence collection aligns to the updated R1 scope.

Important Dates

• July 1, 2026: CIP-012-2 takes effect, replacing CIP-012-1. Applicable to Responsible Entities with Control Center operations.

• July 16, 2026: FERC July Open Meeting. The agenda (sunshine notice) typically posts about a week before; large-load items are likely given FERC's June 18 show-cause orders.

• August 3, 2026: NERC Level 3 Alert entity responses due. Transmission Planners, Balancing Authorities, Transmission Operators, and Reliability Coordinators named in NERC's May 4, 2026 Alert must report their status on modeling, study, protection, and communications practices for large loads.